Leeds United to rely on unproven youngster and Elland Road favourite after Rodrigo goals forecast

The Whites’ Spanish centre-forward has scored 12 goals in 20 appearances across all competitions this season, his best return since joining Leeds in the summer of 2020. Rodrigo’s form in front of goal has largely aided Leeds’ bid to remain clear of the relegation zone, which they sit outside by the small margin of three points. Of the ten teams currently occupying the bottom half of the Premier League table, only Leicester City have scored more than Leeds. Meanwhile Rodrigo’s ten-goal Premier League haul is the fifth-highest by an individual player this season.

However, the 31-year-old’s purple patch is forecast to slow during the second half of the campaign. Rodrigo is currently overperforming his Expected Goals (xG) total by more than any other player in the Premier League. The Spaniard has scored nine non-penalty goals for Leeds, from an xG total of 5.7, according to Opta data.

While there is weight to the argument that the Leeds man is merely an elite-level finisher, there is every chance his goalscoring will slow as it regresses towards the mean value, to come more into line with his xG.

Fortunately, Leeds have a wealth of attacking options at their disposal, with Patrick Bamford fit and firing once again and club-record addition Georginio Rutter eager to get started in a United shirt. Theoretically, this should lessen the goalscoring burden on Rodrigo, so that if his output does slow as is expected, teammates such as Bamford and Rutter will be available to pick up the slack.

Bamford returned to the fold away to Aston Villa two weeks ago, scoring off the bench for the first time since 2021. The one-cap England forward followed up his consolation at Villa Park with a brace as a substitute against Cardiff City during the Whites’ FA Cup Third Round Replay.

Rutter, meanwhile, is anticipated to make his Leeds debut this weekend in the Fourth Round of that competition, followed by his Premier League bow against Nottingham Forest on February 5.